Retirement

Lowered Expectations

What to Do About Low Expected Returns

Lowered Expectations

Every year, several papers project lower expected future returns. They are frequently wrong, but what can you do about it?

Reduce Taxes, Fees, and Inflation

Your best bet is to reduce your taxes by maximizing the use of tax-protected retirement accounts: 401(k)s, Roth IRAs, Health Savings Accounts (HSAs), and 529s.

Avoid frequent trading so you avoid fees and take advantage of lower long-term capital gains and qualified dividend tax rates. Watch your investment commissions and advisory fees. Every dollar you pay to someone else is a dollar that reduces your investment return.

Invest for the long term

You want a significant portion of your portfolio invested into assets that tend to keep up with or beat inflation in the long run, such as stocks, real estate, and inflation-indexed bonds. Avoid savings accounts, CDs and other accounts that do not give you much of a return, unless you need the money short term, for example saving for a down-payment.

Save More

You cannot control future returns, but you can control your savings rate. If future returns are really lower, then you will need to save more money to reach your goals. You should still follow your investing plan. If you do not yet have one, develop one.

Stay the Course

Following an investing plan through thick and thin is a key to successful long-term investing. Chasing performance by jumping from one type of investment to another leads to higher costs and lower returns.

As a general rule, in a low-interest rate and low-expected return environment, all asset classes are affected more or less equally so there is not going to be some magical way of changing your investments to beat the system.

Don't be so gloomy, after all it's not that awful.

  1. If past returns had not been so high, your nest egg would be much smaller.
  2. Returns might be better than you expected.

Are you worried about lower returns?

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